Nigeria: Selfish Interests Fuelling Political Quagmire

Good luck, Jonathan!

The intrigues, power play and political manoeuvres have heightened and attained an extra dimension since the return of President Umaru Musa Yar’adua suddenly from Saudi Arabia, where he has been since the 23 November 2009 for medical treatment.

For more than three months, Nigeria heard nothing about the President. Even the Acting President Goodluck Jonathan, who by all expectations should know the exact location or condition of the President, did not know what was happening to his principal, while the nation continued to sail adrift. Attempts by different groups of Nigerians to visit the ailing leader with a view to ascertaining his state of health did not yield any result, as First Lady Turai Yar’adua continued to block access to the President. The most embarrassing development was the disgrace suffered by the committee constituted by the Federal Executive Council, under the leadership of the Secretary to the State Government of the Federation Yayale Ahmed, to visit Saudi Arabia and officially thank the government and people of that country for their care and support for the Nigerian leader. While this committee arrived in Saudi Arabia, members of the President’s kitchen cabinet, under the direction of the first lady, immediately smuggled him back into the country.

This sudden move was made to forestall any report that might instigate the commencement of impeachment proceedings against Yar’adua. As if that were not enough, officers and soldiers of the Guards Brigade were deployed to the airport, in what appeared to be a show of force to secure the airport and vicinity in readiness for the arrival of the President. President Yar’adua then landed in an air ambulance and has since remained incommunicado. The Acting President, supposedly the Commander-in- Chief of the armed forces, was unaware of this troop deployment.

After President Yar’adua arrived in the country, there was an attempt to deceive Nigerians that all was well and that Yar’adua was in charge. The Senior Special Adviser to the President on Media, Segun Adeniyi, addressed the press claiming that he was acting under instructions of Yar’adua to thank all Nigerians, and to inform them that the Vice President will continue to act for him while his sick leave lasted. Nigerians quickly saw the obvious deceit and reacted accordingly. Adeniyi quickly corrected the embarrassment he had caused by calling Dr Jonathan the Vice President and not the Acting President. Since then, no instructions have been issued to Nigerians on behalf of the President. Rather, what is happening now is that even the cabal of Pro-Yar’adua advisers is gradually coming to the realization that unless the he comes out publicly to address the nation, nothing coming out from the Presidential Villa in the name of the president will be acceptable to Nigerians.

In an apparent move to weaken the grip on power by this cabal, the Acting President on March 8 sacked the National Security Adviser (NSA) for allegedly not acting on intelligence reports in order to forestall the massacre of 500 defenceless civilians in the central Nigerian city of Jos. The failure to stop this tragedy was seemingly used as an excuse to get rid of the NSA, Gen Abdullahi Sarki Muktar whose support and loyalty to President Yar’adua could be seen as a threat to Jonathan’s political ambition. Before the removal of Gen Muktar, the Attorney General of the Federation and Minister of Justice, Chief Michael Aondakaa, who was absolutely in the vanguard of complicity to maintain the political status quo, was removed and redeployed to a less sensitive portfolio. It was also believed that Dr Jonathan, in a bid to check the overbearing influence of former President Olusegun Obasanjo, set up the Presidential Advisory Committee under the chairmanship of the powerful one time Chief of Army Staff and Defence Minister, Gen Theophilus Yakubu Danjuma. Danjuma’s no nonsense disposition is believed to be an antidote to the domineering nature of Obasanjo, and with him out of the way, Jonathan’s hold on power may be further enhanced.

Leading members of the pro Yar’adua group (variously referred to as a ‘cabal’, or the ‘Katsina mafia’) include cabinet staff such as: the President’s Chief Economic Adviser, Tanimu Yakubu; Abba Sayyadi Ruma, Minister of Agriculture and Water Resources; Adamu Muhammad Aliero, Minister of the Federal Capital Territory; and Shettima Mustapha, Minister of the Interior. Other leading members include a non cabinet member, one time Governor of Delta State, James Ibori; and business mogul, Dahiru Mangal (who is alleged to be a trans-border smuggler and Yar’adua’s business front). This group is unrelenting in their machinations, which include subtle threats to Jonathan and those sympathetic to him. These actions all form an attempt to create confusion and make governance difficult if not impossible for Jonathan. The group is not in support of any cabinet shuffle or policy shift. Minister Mustapha was quick in addressing a press conference in Abuja to deny any allegations of plans to scuttle the Jonathan administration.

However, despite all of these efforts, some of the members of the Yar’adua group are nursing the ambition of becoming the Vice President, should by any chance the acting President become substantive president. Governor of Bauchi State and son in law to President Yar’adua, Isa Yuguda, can be counted in this category. Thus it becomes apparent, that all the power play and political intrigues by these players seems to be nothing short of their selfish desires to promote their own political and economic interests, and not necessarily those of Yar’adua. In fact, many may gradually be seeing the President as a political liability.

For now, President Yar’adua’s performance has become a big masquerade, as he will not make any public appearances. This makes Dr Goodluck Jonathan’s position more secure, and gradually his grip on power is becoming more firm by the day. What is needed immediately, if it becomes confirmed that Yar’adua is not fit to govern, is for Jonathan to be sworn in as substantive President while another person be appointed Vice President. Anything short of this solution may not be politically tidy, as Jonathan without a Vice President may then continue to govern as the sole administrator of Nigeria.