According to Teri Kwal Gamble and Michael W Gamble in their publication, Making Sense of Senselessness, ‘…untangling the causes of terrorism is much like trying to understand why war occurs…It is possible , however to explain that terrorism occurs because, like war, it is misleading to treat terrorism as the irrational acts of crazed fanatics. To the contrary, terrorism occurs because many of those who use it consider it a necessary, legitimate and effective tool to rid themselves of what they consider oppression….’

It is therefore not surprising when Nigerians first became aware of Boko Haram, a militant Islamic group founded by Mohammed Yusuf around 2000, as simply an extremist religious sect, seeking strict implementation of the Islamic law, Sharia. But then, the implications of the interpretation of the Hausa name: Boko Haram, which means ‘Western Education is Sin,’ was not lost on anyone.

By the time the sect was directly implicated in the 2009 sectarian violence that enveloped the city of Maiduguri in North Eastern Nigeria, resulting in the death of over 450 people, it became obvious that a major problem had set into Nigeria’s socio-political life.

Tolerated and even courted by some politicians in the North Eastern part of the country mainly, the group was allowed to flourish and grow stronger and more sophisticated before it dawned on all that indeed it was no longer the harmless group that these politicians would have unsuspecting Nigerians believe. Although, little findings have been made concerning the command structure of the group after the extra judicial killing of its founding leader, Mohammed Yusuf in 2009, it is clear that the group has since been divided into factions, with some of the factions having links with terror groups outside Nigeria. Indeed, the links had been traced to Somalia, North Africa and beyond, while the dominant areas of operation of the groups still remain the North Eastern States of Borno, Bauchi and Yobe, with several other attacks reported in Plateau and Niger States, North Central Nigeria.

For maximum attention and impact the trend is for the sect to choose important national events or festivals to launch their deadly acts. In early November 2011 just two days to the Muslim festival of Eid-el-Kabir, it unleashed a devastating bombing spree on Potiskum and Damaturu in Yobe state, as well as Maiduguri in Borno State. It also targeted the 1st October 2011 Independence day celebration in Abuja, forcing the Federal Government to shift the independence day activities into the confines of State House. Since then, several bomb blasts have been recorded across the Northern parts of Nigeria with casualty figures well above 1,000.

The most significant, though not the least deadly were the blasts at the Police Headquarters of 16 June 2011 and the U.N. Head office, of 22 August 2011, both in Abuja, the seat of the Federal Government. Since then police stations have been vandalised at will and officers and men cut down with so much ease, including several officers of the State Security Service. In like manner, soldiers, especially members of the Joint Task Force, set up to tackle the menace are not spared. Even the precincts of army barracks have been hit by bombs while vulnerable banks have been attacked and millions of Naira taken to finance their various activities.

The most devastating of all the attacks came on Friday, January 20, 2012, a few hours after the Jumaat prayers (Friday Muslim prayers). On that fateful day, members of Boko Haram launched coordinated bomb and gun attacks in Kano, North Western Nigeria, targeting the State Security Service office, the Zonal and State headquarters of the police and several other police formations and the Immigration Office in the metropolis. The official casualty figure released by the police was 185, although reports by journalists and various aid groups put the figure at well above that. The sect will later claim that the Kano bombings were reprisals against the people and government of Kano State over the way and manner their members were been arrested and arbitrarily detained by the police. It will indeed be recalled that the sect had issued a warning that unless its members that were being detained by the police in various detention centres in the state were released forthwith, the city will not be spared. True to that threat, mayhem was unleashed on Kano, the magnitude of which had never been felt before.

Why then Boko Haram, if one may ask? According to the sect whose official name is Jama’atu Ahlis-Sunnah Lidda’awati Wal Jihad their aim is to completely Islamise Nigeria by having the Islamic Law firmly in place. The sect does not recognise the Nigerian constitution neither does it recognise the leadership of President Goodluck Jonathan. The man who identifies himself as the leader of the sect, Imam Abu Muhammad Abubakar Bin Muhammad Shekau had rebuffed any move at initiating dialogue with government. Iman Shekau who demanded that President Jonathan must first convert to Islam before any compromises scoffed at the recent hint by the President that government may be willing to dialogue with the sect. President Jonathan had in an interview with Reuters on Friday 27th January challenged the sect to come out publicly and declare what it wants from government, stating that his government may consider to dialogue with the group.

But the group remains adamant insisting that their demands be met first before any talks can be held. This clearly shows that the agenda of this sect goes beyond the merely religious connotation the issue had been given, knowing very well that it is impossible to implement their demand even in the North Eastern parts of Nigeria, not to talk of the entire country. What then is the motive behind these violent agitations?

President Jonathan had recently revealed at a church service to commemorate the 2012 Armed Forces Remembrance Day that members of the sect had infiltrated his government, the armed forces and the police. The president cannot be far from the truth judging by the inability of government to fight this group, which appeared to have better intelligence and more information about all decisions and actions of government. Recently, a high profile suspect that allegedly masterminded the Christmas day 2011 bombing of a church in Madalla, Niger State where about 50 persons were killed, Kabiru Sokoto escaped from police custody in a very mysterious manner while being conveyed to his house for a search by the police. So far, this development had claimed its highest casualty yet in the person of the former Inspector General of Police, Hafiz Ringim who was removed from office for this and for his general inability to deal with the violence.

According to the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Sanusi Lamido Sanusi, the whole problem is about poverty. In an interview he granted the Financial Times of London, Friday, 27th January 2012, he argued that ‘….There is a structural imbalance of enormous proportions. Those states {North Eastern Nigeria} simply do not have enough money to meet basic needs while some states {South South Nigeria} have too much….’ He cited the example of Federal allocation based on derivation from the oil revenue to Rivers State between 1999-2008 as being to the tune of N1,053 Billion as against the allocation to the States of Borno and Yobe which stood at only N385 Billion for the same period. Sanusi believes that it is now necessary to focus funds on regenerating other regions, if Nigeria wants to secure long-term stability.

While the Central Bank governor blames deprivation as the main cause of instability, others are of the opinion that the activities of the Boko Haram sect are clearly aimed at Balkanizing the country. Even the sect did not deny this when at the tail end of 2011 it issued an order for all Christians in Yobe state in particular to leave the state before a certain date. The threat to annihilate Christians was actually carried out as thousands of Christians had to flee the state for their life while their homes were razed down by the sect in a violent orgy of bloodletting. While Christians from other states of the country returned to their respective states abandoning their work and businesses, indigenous Christians from Yobe state have massively relocated to other areas of safety, leaving desolation in the wake of this ugly development.

In their various and varied reactions to the menace of this sect, the leaders of South South and South East Nigeria believe that the continued violence on the nation is a clear indication that the perpetrators are working with some unscrupulous politicians to scuttle the present political leadership in the country. They cannot be far from the truth. Throughout the period of the recent fuel subsidy removal protests in the country, the sect refrained from any violent activity; this complete lull in violence gave an insight into the hidden motive of the people behind the sect. However, when the Labour movement called off the protests after government had agreed to review downward the pump price of Premium Motor Spirit, the sect issued a threat on labour leaders for what it termed a betrayal of the people. The question then is since when had this group represented the general interest of the masses of Nigeria; some of the questions that needs answers.

Perhaps it is based on such trends that these leaders raised alarm, and rightly so, that Nigeria was being programmed for sinister considerations, and warned the armed forces not to contemplate any change of government as a result of the wanton destruction of life and property by an amorphous group. In the same vein, the Ijaw Youth {Jonathan’s kinsmen} in an open letter to the nation also alleged that some politicians who want to grab power at all cost are the ones sponsoring the Boko Haram sect.

While it is easy to empathize with President Jonathan that members of the dreaded sect have infiltrated his government, the truth however remains that this sect that started as a peoples’ movement around 2000 in the North Eastern part of the country has been hijacked by some politicians who want to remove Jonathan from office. For now, it is the culture of silence and complicity as no Northern politician is willing to come out openly and identify the sponsors of this sect or to talk evil of their activities all in the name of fear. Indeed, the Northern Governors have been accused of paying various sums of money to the sect to elicit their cooperation in one form or the other, a claim that had been vehemently denied, although there appears to be more than meets the eye in the entire Boko Haram conundrum. For now, while the violence continues, it is more an issue of politics rather than religion, although the religious angle is being dangled vociferously to elicit the cooperation of the majority of the gullible people in the region. And, for now it seems to be working.

The term ‘evangelization’ is open to misinterpretation, suggesting for some that it is synonymous with colonial domination and amounts to a kind of religious ‘imperialism’ by Western Christian missionaries who held indigenous African spirituality in contempt and who imposed their beliefs and institutions without restraint. But it is this objection which Pope Benedict’s messages in Benin directly counters. The Catholic presence throughout Africa was never intended to merely add to the numbers of baptized adherents. Nominalism is not the goal of evangelization; rather, the objective is an interior conversion which transforms individuals, promotes collective morality, and inspires society to safeguard the welfare of its every member.

How is evangelization expressed? Simply stated, evangelization enables believers to witness of their commitment to ‘serve reconciliation, justice and peace.’ The Pope elaborates: Africa’s faithful Christians are not in competition or at enmity with those who profess other religious affiliation or whose preference is to exclude ties with any formal religion. By contrast, Africa’s Christians are meant ‘to become joyful instruments of divine mercy;’ sensitive and receptive to the needs and dignity of fellow Africans, without exception and without condition. Moreover, it is the duty of each Christian to be a contributor ‘to the common good.’ And, that common good must be recognized as possessing ‘its own spiritual and material’ patrimony. Nor is it ever to be identified with exclusive Christian interests. The challenge facing the Catholic Christian is that of cooperating to actualize the potential of all Africans, so that Africa’s unique legacy of accumulated wisdom, of reverence for the environment, and of perseverance amidst adversity, may enrich across the globe.

From Pope Benedict’s discourse while in Benin, we may deduce several further characteristics of the Christian’s vocation as ‘servant of the common good’. Such servanthood:

(a) attests ‘to the possibility of a harmonious coexistence within the nation, and between Church and State.’ In this endeavor, ‘good will and mutual respect (…) are essential for building unity between individuals, ethnic groups and peoples.’ This is not Utopian idealism, but practically, through sincere effort, may come to fruition. (Address at Departure Ceremony, Gantin Airport, Cotonou)

(b) promotes realistic and profound hope. There is no doubt that ‘difficulties (…) are met along (life’s) way and which can at times be serious.’ But instead of leading ‘to discouragement, (they) become incentives to the awakening (…) of a deep spiritual life;’ one which eagerly seeks to foster ‘advancement in the search for spiritual and human development.’ The prospect to better the common good inspires inter-personal confidence and national optimism. (Address to Benin’s bishops, Apostolic Nunciature)

(c) translates piety into social action. Speaking to a meeting with children who greeted him at the Parish Church of Saint Rita, in Cotonou, Pope Benedict urged them to grow in the habit of prayer. But that prayer is not oriented to a privatized sanctification. On the contrary, prayer disposes the believer to engage in radical ‘forgiveness and charity’ towards all.

(d) ‘adopts a courageous ethical approach to (one’s) responsibilities.’ These words, from the Pope’s Address to government officials and to the diplomatic corps assembled at the Presidential Palace, appeal for transparency on every level of civic administration. The Pope recognized that scandals and corruption are prevalent. But he also stressed that these should not be ignored or condoned. Manipulation, greed, violence and intolerance are never acceptable choices. To serve the common good means that these be offset, notably by the facilitation of dialogue. For ‘dialogue is another way of loving God and our neighbor out of love for the truth.’

(e) Exercises prudence ‘in the delicate transition currently underway (in Benin) from tradition to modernity.’ Benin cannot set aside its ‘ancient and noble traditions.’ But the nation must not be so fixated upon that heritage that it risks those pitfalls which afflict the African continent (e.g. an unbridled ‘law of the market,’ excessive nationalism, ‘exaggerated tribalism’). ‘The transition to modernity must be guided by sure criteria based on (such) virtues (as) are listed in (Benin’s) national motto.’ Those who serve the common good desire ‘to give (their) best to everyone.’ (Address for Welcome Ceremony, Gantin Airport, Cotonou)

The move by the ANC is essentially pre-emptive, and puts them on a par with some of the more anti-democratic nations which routinely restrict the press. To the credit of the media in South Africa, and in fact of opposition parties, they have not only continually expressed their opposition to the bill and its forerunner which planned for a stifling Media Tribunal, but they have been continually and fearlessly uncovering corruption in the government, from underhanded tenders for work to corruption over arms deals at the highest levels.

South Africans stood up for themselves and were not cowed by the passing of the undemocratic bill, however. The ‘Black Tuesday’ protests, organised by media and civil society organisations and echoing 1977′s Black Wednesday when the Apartheid government banned a number of media organisations, struck a chord, with South Africans at home and abroad wearing black and even blacking out their online profile pictures. Desmond Tutu and even Nelson Mandela, in a rare criticism of ANC policy, publicly denounced the bill. Bravely, investigative journalists have also done the right thing by vowing to fight on and keep telling people the truth. As has been pointed out by veteran journalists, it is possible that the ANC is trying to intimidate people who may know certain things they don’t want to become public. With increasing information sharing, and contact between journalists and sources, it is possible that somewhere somebody knows something the party wants kept secret. Of course, while journalists and editors will continue to work for freedom, the bill is aimed at – and will doubtless deter – those sources who would be able to provide the information. Their actions in sharing information nebulously classified by politicians as being hidden due to ‘public interest’ will be criminalised.

The perhaps not too well-kept secret that is now out of the bag, however, is that the ANC could justifiably be charged with harbouring undemocratic tendencies. Already suffering something of a turbulent patch in their international reputation, their spokesperson Jackson Mthembu is going to be working overtime for the next while to try and come up with a convincing message for a sceptical audience. Not only has the party been in the headlines abroad – as well as at home – for corrupt arms deals, crooked politicians and security officials, and Julius Malema’s various turns at racism and buffoonery, but tough questions have been asked about the party over its stance on Libya and relationship with Muammar al-Gaddafi, its perceived deference to China over the Dalai Lama’s visa, and now most recently its abstention from voting at the UN Security Council over the crackdown in Syria.

There is no denying that these are all serious and complicated issues, and taking a particular side on any of them is not an open and shut matter. There are also clearly pressing geopolitical realities following a series of international conflicts, and a fairly dangerous and unstable world economic situation – and equally dangerously an increasing ‘with us or against us’ mentality in Europe, the U.S., the Middle East and elsewhere. The tightening up of security given these realities is perhaps understandable for the ANC, but the curtailing of democratic freedoms is not going to help their reputation at all – proof of which can be seen in the aforementioned international media coverage of their ‘Secrecy Bill’.

Thus, the ANC has played their hand. While it is foreseeable that in the short-term, sources may be discouraged from sharing information which government figures deem classified, it is likely that the ANC has done more damage to its reputation with its own actions anyway. They have also provided an object lesson and a warning to other governments with democratic aspirations, which is that in today’s age, it’s not easy to control and contain information – but if you don’t learn to manage it properly, it could end up controlling you.

The report published today titled, ‘You’ll Be Fired If You Refuse’: Labor Abuses in Zambia’s Chinese State-owned Copper Mines,’ details the persistent abuses in Chinese-run mines, including poor health and safety conditions, regular 12-hour and even 18-hour shifts involving arduous labor, and anti-union activities, all in violation of the country’s national laws or international labour standards. The four Chinese-run copper mining companies in Zambia are subsidiaries of China Non-Ferrous Metals Mining Corporation, a state-owned enterprise under the authority of China’s highest executive body. Copper mining is the lifeblood of the Zambian economy, contributing nearly 75 percent of the country’s exports and two-thirds of the central government revenue.

‘China’s significant investment in Zambia’s copper mining industry can benefit both Chinese and Zambians,’ said Daniel Bekele, Africa director at HRW. ‘But the miners in Chinese-run companies have been subject to abusive health, safety, and labour conditions and longtime government indifference.’

The report is based on research conducted during three field missions in November 2010 and July 2011 and draws on more than 170 interviews, including with 95 mine workers from the country’s four Chinese copper operations and 48 mine workers from other multinational copper mining operations. Miners at Chinese-run firms said they were pleased that the companies had made a substantial investment in the copper mines and created jobs. But they described abusive employment conditions that violate national and international standards and fall short of practices among other multinational copper mining companies in the country.

‘Sometimes when you find yourself in a dangerous position, they tell you to go ahead with the work,’ an underground miner at Non-Ferrous China Africa (NFCA) told HRW. ‘They just consider production, not safety. If someone dies, he can be replaced tomorrow. And if you report the problem, you’ll lose your job.’

Between 5th – 12th October, 2011 miners at three of the four Chinese-run copper mining operations initiated strikes, hopeful that the new government’s election would create an environment for improved conditions. Production ground to a halt. On October 19, NFCA, the longest-operating Chinese-owned copper mine, fired at least 1,000 striking workers. After government pressure in subsequent days, NFCA agreed to reinstate them. Reuters reported that NFCA’s chief executive officer said that the reinstated workers would be screened and the ‘troublemakers’ disciplined.

Miners from the Chinese-owned companies described consistently poor health and safety standards, including inadequate ventilation that can lead to serious lung diseases, the failure to replace workers’ damaged protective equipment, and routine threats to fire workers who refuse to work in unsafe places underground. These practices, combined with the already dangerous nature of copper mining, cause injuries and other health complications. At times, Chinese managers bribe or threaten miners to keep them from reporting accidents or other problems to the government’s Mines Safety Department, the miners said.

‘Many of the poor health and safety practices we found in Zambia’s Chinese-run mines look strikingly similar to abuses we see in China,’ Bekele said. ‘Respecting labour laws and ensuring workers’ safety should be standard operating practice both in China and abroad, not treated as an irritating barrier to greater profits.’

In addition to their poor safety standards, several Chinese-run copper operations in Zambia require miners to work brutally long shifts, despite difficult conditions involving extreme heat and contact with acids and noxious chemicals. Many miners at Sino Metals work five 12-hour shifts a week as well as a sixth 18-hour ‘change shift’ when they rotate from the day shift to the night shift or vice versa. Other miners there described working 365 days without a single day off. Zambian law specifies a 48-hour work week, and every other multinational copper mining company uses 8-hour shifts that comply with this law. Several miners said the long hours contributed to accidents, and many complained about failing to receive proper overtime.

The curtailment of union activity hampers the ability to address these and other issues of concern to workers – particularly pay, which is higher than the country’s monthly minimum wage, but much lower than that paid by other multinational copper mining firms. Several Chinese-run operations have prevented workers from exercising their right to join the labour union of their choice through threats and intimidation. Miners in companies run by the Chinese or other multinationals also described retaliation against outspoken union representatives, including docked pay or refusal to renew their contracts.

China Non-Ferrous Metals Mining Corporation (CNMC) responded in detail to HRW’s findings and also said they have launched a general investigation into the issues across CNMC-owned operations, with the aim to rectify existing malpractices, to eliminate possible potential risks, and to work together in managing their enterprises well.

On health and safety, the Chinese say the management approach that CNMC-owned operations have adopted places high importance on issues related to health and safety conditions during production and are in accordance with the requirements of the country’s mining laws.

On the issue of union activity, broadly speaking, the Chinese say they value collaboration with the trade unions and have never interfered with the right of any employee to join a union. There are, they say, currently branches of two trade unions within NFCA for instance. They claim there was only one union in CNMC-owned operations prior to 2006.

CNMC they say, is a Chinese state-owned enterprise under the direct supervision and management of the State Council, thus it is essential to their long-term vision to fulfill their social responsibilities and to bring benefit to the locals.

In its report, HRW said while there have been improvements on many labour issues since the Chinese companies first started operations in 2003, they still fail to meet the standards of both labour law and their multinational competitors in the country’s copper industry. Miners now periodically receive personal protective equipment, which previously was not provided systematically or in its entirety. But the equipment is still generally not replaced when damaged during work, leading to unnecessary accidents and health problems. After years of pressure from the unions and government, first aid kits and ambulances have been added to respond to serious injuries – though workers said first aid kits taken underground are often incomplete because managers are careless about safety.

‘Recent improvements show that Chinese companies will abide by labour laws when the Zambian government fulfills its responsibility to protect workers’ rights,’ Bekele said. ‘But while Zambia’s mining laws are strong on paper, the government has failed to enforce them.’

Primary responsibility for ensuring that the country’s copper mining companies operate in accordance with national and international standards rests with the government. It has a Mines Safety Department within the Ministry of Mines and Minerals Development that is responsible for enforcing the country’s mining regulations, including on health and safety.

However, the department is understaffed, underfunded, and accused by miners of being corrupt – leaving it almost wholly ineffective. It performs virtually no proactive inspections and because of budget constraints, at times requires companies that are to be investigated to pay for transportation and other costs. The fines it is allowed to impose are so low that they have almost no deterrent effect, HRW said.

The Labour Ministry has routinely endorsed collective bargaining agreements containing provisions that conflict with Zambian and international labour law. It has also failed to take action against companies that commit prejudicial acts against union representatives.

‘Rather than simply blame Chinese-run firms, President Sata needs to ensure that his government is effectively protecting workers’ rights,’ Bekele said. ‘More stringent measures are needed against all companies that flout labour laws and mining regulations.’

This new quarterly economic forecast is well placed to offer insight on macroeconomic trends across 25 RGMs which have been selected based on the size of the economy and population, strategic importance for business and proven strong growth and future potential. Included among the 25 RGMs are four African economies, namely South Africa, Nigeria, Ghana and Egypt.

Michael Lalor, Leader of the Africa Business Center at Ernst & Young comments, ‘We are particularly delighted that African economies are being included on an equal footing with other RGMs. This reflects Africa’s sustainable growth story and the increasing attractiveness of the continent for foreign investors.’

Longer term projections also reveal that RGM nations have grown on average by 5.8% per year over the last decade, more than three times as fast as the advanced economies combined. This fast pace of expansion is set to continue with growth in RGMs outpacing the advanced economies by more than 3.5% per annum over the next decade.

However, this future growth is all on condition that nations are able to deal with inflationary pressures and have adequate infrastructure in place to secure long term growth.

But with Nigeria, Kenya and Uganda recently raising interest rates in order to curb inflation, it seems, where possible, African governments are taking steps in order to continue this upward trend.

The inclusion of South Africa, Nigeria, Ghana and Egypt in the RGMs reflects the measures many African countries have taken to open up their economies and improve trade. As we reported last week, a new joint report by the International Finance Corporation (IFC) and the World Bank (Doing Business in a More Transparent World 2012), recorded a significant improvement to the ‘ease of doing business’ on the continent, with many countries implementing – and, crucially, adhering to – policy and regulatory processes.

An additional factor which may support continuing growth is that the RGMs bounced back from the global recession, with their GDP rising on average by 7.3% in 2010 – back to the buoyant rates that preceded the financial crisis. Although the forecast predicts a future marginal decline, this is more likely to affect South Africa and Egypt as, according to Lalor, they are most closely integrated into the global economy so are most directly impacted by the slowdown in mature market. With average GDP growth just under 6% in 2012, both Ghana and Nigeria together with a number of other economies in sub-Saharan Africa continue to grow at rates in excess of 7%. With exports accounting for around 50% of GDP in the RGMs as a whole, compared with 13% in the US or 41% in the Eurozone, it seems African markets are positioned to be virtually indispensible to the global economy.

Rain Newton-Smith, Senior Economic Adviser to Ernst & Young’s Rapid Growth Markets Forecast comments, ‘The RGMs are becoming increasingly more important in terms of both their overall weight in the world economy and their global influence. While the advanced economies struggle with weak growth the RGMs are well-placed to weather the economic storm.’

While the chaotic Eurozone crisis will inevitably continue to weigh on growth in the RGMs in 2012, the report indicates western companies are pursuing growth in the RGMs as a result of weak home markets. Ernst & Young’s Africa Attractiveness Survey, also illustrated the increasingly important role that investors from BRIC markets like China, India and also South Africa are playing on the continent. RGMF expects countries such as China and India to be more modestly affected, partly reflecting the large size of their domestic markets and the beneficial effects of lower oil and commodity prices, meaning that their investment is likely to continue – a good sign as foreign direct investment inflows to all RGMs have risen from US$205b in 2000 to US$444b in 2010, and they now receive around 50% of global foreign direct investment inflows.

Lalor says that in the African context, particular attention will need to continue to be given to ongoing institutional and regulatory reform, economic diversification, and the development of financial markets, all of which would help sustain and accelerate growth and development.

www.ey.com/rapidgrowth

The despot’s defeat came swiftly, following his discovery in a sewage line in his home town of Sirte, one of the last strongholds of loyalist troops in the country. There he was captured and reported to have been fatally wounded in crossfire between his supporters and  interim government National Transition Council (NTC) fighters. His body was quickly revealed by the NTC to the world’s media, lest there be any doubt that the erstwhile dictator was dead- a measure necessary given false confirmation earlier in the year of the capture of his son Saif. For the Libyan people, Gaddafi’s body was put on public display in a supermarket refrigerator in the port city of Misrata, where scores lined up to view and photograph it.

Although celebrations across the country do not show any sign of waning just yet, Gaddafi’s end is not as neat a culmination as many would like. Libya’s chief pathologist, Dr Othman al-Zintani, reported that Gaddafi died from a gunshot wound to the head; however the turn of events marking his last moments is mired in confusion; he was reportedly captured alive, but injured in both legs. Transported to hospital he dies in crossfire; but camera phone footage reveals him covered in blood and jostled by handlers, dragged to the ground by his hair.

The uncertainty of how he met his end has lead to questions of culpability and whether Gaddafi in fact died at the hands of the mob. Following calls by US Secretary of State Hilary Clinton and the UK Defence Secretary Philip Hammond, the United Nations has already said it would conduct an investigation into his killing. New York-based organisation Human Rights Watch, viewed the body, and confirmed video footage, photos and other information ‘indicate that [he] might have been executed after being detained’.

By and large, these concerns are not shared by the Libyan people.

Khalid al-Jibouni of the Tripoli Youth Union – a volunteer organisation promoting civil society – told the Guardian: ‘Now Gaddafi is dead, the pillars of the regime have all fallen. Until now, some people still thought that Gaddafi could somehow come back. Now we can really breathe freely.’

But Gaddafi’s removal is also of great significance to the international community. The leader’s ‘Islamic Legion’ committed heinous crimes in West Africa, including supporting and backing rebel leaders Foday Sankoh and Charles Taylor in Sierra Leone and Liberia respectively.  Agents murdered political opponents abroad, and he was the proponent of terrorist activities including IRA violence and the Lockerbie bombing which killed over 250 people in 1988.

The involvement and backing of NATO forces certainly abetted the revolution- and will no doubt play an invaluable role in rebuilding the country- but it did lead to inevitable questions as to their future role in the country. As we foresaw back in August,  it will be a daunting task; but should the West decide to replicate a democratic etic in Libya it could give rise to further problems. Given all political opposition was outlawed under Gaddafi’s leadership, parties have a long road ahead of them before they come to plan for a new government and constitutional assembly; but they must be allowed to take these steps themselves.

The democratic tenet on which the revolution was based and Gaddafi ousted must not be forgotten and it is important that the country feels it can now act in an autonomous manner, without interference.

Prior to Gaddafi’s capture, former UK foreign secretary Sir Malcolm Rifkind told BBC Radio 4 Today programme;

‘This isn’t about the British position or the NATO position – it’s about what the Libyans themselves want and can live with.

‘It is their country and it is their future’: a precept which rings as true following Gaddafi’s removal – however it happened.

As much as the international community – and, it must be said, many Libyans too- had held out hope that Gaddafi would finally be made to answer for his atrocious crimes by the International Criminal Court (ICC), pursuing the manner of his death is not what should take precedence in Libya now. Investigations into his killing will no doubt distract from the task of implementing change in a country decidedly on the cusp of securing democratic, people-led governance.

It is a particularly key moment for the NTC to look to the future. Just two days after Gaddafi’s death interim Prime Minister Mahmoud Jibril confirmed that Libya’s new leaders have a ‘very limited opportunity’ to put their differences to one side, as he announced he was stepping down. Pro-Gaddafi fighters are still heavily armed and have yet to yield to the interim powers, so a resurgence of conflict is not yet out of the question.

The legality of the NTC has also been weakened by alternative explanations of Gaddafi’s killing, which differ from their official account. This undermines somewhat their democratic imperative, and combined with a protracted delay in disposing of his body has led some analysts to suggest political disorder is imminent.

Ed Husain, Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations believes that ‘the chaotic manner in which Muammar al-Qaddafi was allegedly captured, injured, and then killed is emblematic of the mismanagement and blunders of the Libyan National Transition Council. Worse, the barbaric manner in which–at least according to several photographs–the killers surrounded his blood-soaked corpse does not bode well for the emergence of a democratic culture inside Libya soon.’

The danger is, if we dwell too much on Gaddafi’s death, we malign the thousands of Libyans’ who died or are missing in pursuit of democratic freedoms.

George Grant of the British-based think-tank The Henry Jackson Society believes that reconciliation with former Gaddafi security forces and civilian personnel who were not found guilty of serious crimes ‘must be an absolute priority’.

‘Their inclusion in any post-Gaddafi settlement will be vital not just because of their expertise, but also because of the importance of incorporating potentially antagonistic constituencies into the transitional framework, thus maximising its chances for success,’ he said.

Revolutions are not new to the Arab world – even Gaddafi styled himself as ‘Guide of the Revolution’ having led the coup d’état to overthrow King Idris I in 1969. But 2011’s Arab Spring has brought a new, stronger component; the voices of the people. Having shaken the shackles of an obdurate rule, Libyan’s are now in a position to decide for themselves what kind of political future they want and the country’s official liberation, announced on October 23, will no doubt draw a timeframe for elections to be held. Although it is not yet clear who or what will take the place of Gaddafi or the monarchy he overthrew, the forces of the revolution will surely propel Libya toward a healthier future. Rich oil reserves and the propensity for a lucrative tourist industry could provide a bounty of opportunity for a country of just 6 million people.

“As a poet, an artist, I share myself, I tell my truth, I reconcile my demons: as artists we are mirrors of society , we generate the questions that need to be asked, if I am ready to ask the question, society is asking it too.” Betty Muragori is a vibrant articulate performance poet, writer, consultant and coach, and part of the new middle classes, that contentious beast in Africa. She continues: “I think we have to acknowledge that here in Kenya the new leaders didn’t really overturn the colonial model. They stepped into the trappings of privilege, and carried on. We live in comfortable suburbs. Yet we have terrible slums on our doorstep. It’s about comfort and exclusion, did we really dismantle it? it’s like you’ve been smelling the cooking, you’ve been standing at the kitchen door, and now that door is open. You can come in, and you think, this is what I desire, so I straighten my hair, I change myself, I call myself ‘wrong’ so I can now step into this world I’ve spent my life looking at.”

Any discussion around class, aspirations, improvement and consumption here in East Africa generates a huge vibrant discussion. Disentangling whether or not increased incomes and appetites equals a treacherous slide towards adopting Western (or Colonial) attitudes is inevitable. As Dr Rosemary Okoth remarks “Defining the middle class is intensely problematic, arguably our upper class are our political leaders who have money, and power, to which the middle classes aspire. This is a fluid term, when they are out of power they’ll be back in the matatu (minibus, public transport) and borrowing money again. Is that who we aspire to be?” The lack of role models for the new middle class and the lack of parameters for the discussion is evident: is it about leadership, obligations, or tribe? Says Okoth “What is so interesting about Tanzania is that it is irrelevant where Nyerere came from. That is an amazing achievement, that the term ‘tribe’ is inconsequential in creating a true nation”.

Young Tanzanians however, are far removed from the socialism and ubuntu of ‘Baba Wa Taifa’ (Father of the Nation) President Julius Nyerere. They are immersed in Blackberry phones, Bling, Barbie Girl on the Radio, SMS connectivity. Twenty years ago, this sort of Tanzanian didn’t exist. Julius Nyerere actively discouraged middle class consumption, business or entrepreneurism: in the socialist model, we were all equal.

Is this rapid thrust towards acquisition healthy? What is being sidelined in the process? Certainly academics, teachers and artists, those who are responsible for creating the next generation of the middle class, do not have salaries commensurate with their achievements. In this new climate businessmen are rewarded, not poets. Geoffrey Macharia, a Kenyan IT specialist says “I grew up with Ngugi wa Thiong’o, with Chinua Achebe, this forms my identity, my roots. All this investment creates a class of people who have disposable income, but still, the arts must remain free, and not objective driven, or determined by the availability of resources. Cultural identity comes from the ‘software’ the arts of society.”

Out on the streets, surveying any major capital- Mombasa, Kampala, Arusha, Nairobi or Dar Es Salaam the profligacy of malls, luxury serviced apartments, office blocks and hotels springing up is striking and alarming- who is building this stuff? Who is it for? There appears to be a projected fantasy lifestyle that we will be living in an endless American-type consumption fetish loop. What lies beneath the exuberant boasts that “we’ve never had it so good here in East Africa” is a slow and stealthy obliteration of public space, of cultural and other discussion of what society is, and what we’re doing. In the furious rush to build and pillage, the importance, and funding of the arts seems to have got trampled.

Faisal Kiwewa, Director of the thriving Ugandan Arts organization Bayimba Cultural Foundation notes, “Whereas we receive considerable support from mainly foreign public sector funders, we are challenged in convincing the private sector to get on board. They perceive arts festivals do not directly serve rampant consumerism, nor do they offer direct private benefits. The private sector fails to see – or attach value to – the relevance and economic spin-off of investing in a large arts and /cultural festivals. Even though this very same private sector is to a large extend relying and /depending on goods produced by this very sector”. In effect African culture is largely validated – and funded- by non-Africans.

He goes on, “Our governments are pushed by the same consumerism and only seem to want to invest in the hardware, buildings, roads etc. and not in the software of society, in – arts / culture, in education. There is huge building activity on going in Kampala, often at the expense of the software, the non-commercial side of society, and with hardly any public space left”. Right now, there is a huge public debate in Uganda regarding the demolition of the only National Museum for a commercial 60, yes sixty, floor building called the East African Trade Centre.

There is certainly a huge need for more dialogue between those who work in the arts, and those who work in business. The sponsorship of the arts by large corporates that is so prevalent in South Africa is new here in East Africa. Kenya’s Safaricom (part of the global Vodacom group, which overall does have a progressive approach to the arts) does support regular excellent classical concerts and other cultural projects. But for larger arts events, like the Sauti Za Busara Festival in Zanzibar, funding questions are ongoing. The festival is a cultural counterpoint to the flashy hotels springing up. Director Yusuf Mahmoud says: “Sauti Za Busara festival brings a significant boost for the local economy. All the hotels around Stone Town are fully booked around festival time, it’s difficult to get local flights and ferry tickets; taxi drivers are busy, shops are full and local traders are all smiling. The number of visitors to Zanzibar in February has increased by more than 400% since the festival started. People of different races, religions, political parties and beliefs mingle with each other. Yet at the same time we really struggle to persuade corporate Tanzania their involvement in sponsoring is crucial to ensure the festival is even able to continue”.

Arthur Ashton, a Tanzanian who is in import and export (he brings in large volumes of white goods) says “We in East Africa are expanding at an incredible rate on all fronts. Land ownership, mining trading, transport with the pan-African highway, ships and containers coming into the large ports ( a new one is being built to service East Africa, in Tanga right now), mining, you name it, there isn’t a single sector that isn’t expanding, and with it the emerging middle class and their voracious appetite for consumer ‘stuff’ is growing, plasma TV screens, all this building.” Democracy appears to equal the ability to purchase, to own. Equality is now a new Mercedes Benz.

Koshi Sampi and his brother Ravi, from Nairobi and in their early thirties, still see great opportunities in Tanzania. “Arusha is only three hours away on the Pan East African Highway, but it’s behind Nairobi in some ways, in terms of manufacturing and investment, and the drop in commodities like tea, coffee and mineral resources on the world market has affected us. But all the same, compared to Kenya, there’s so much potential for developing manufacturing here. Textiles, tyres, pharmaceuticals. All the things we’ve got already in Nairobi”. They are sceptical about the new middle class: “They’re ostentatious, building big marble houses and showing off their wealth, the new middle class, but they’re hoarding, and they’re not generous; we need to get to a point where the wealth is spread out a bit- into restaurants, jazz clubs, theatre, culture, like London and Nairobi, we’re still a long way off that.”

For the larger businessmen, their concerns are economic, not artistic. Says Koshi, “Actually whilst the fact that international firms and banks are moving into East African like never before, we need to stem the flood of cheap imports, by imposing higher import duties, like India has, otherwise we’ll get swamped with cheap tat, and lose sight of quality.” But the cheap tat has a market: for the first time a whole range of ‘stuff’ (the market is brimming with cheap kitchen goods, radios, unbelievable numbers of hardware shops, and cheap imported clothes) is available to the poorer sections of the country.

Tanzania, like Uganda and Kenya supports over 70% of its working population in the informal sector. Unemployment figures are notoriously unreliable here, but it stands, conservatively at 50% in all these countries . The description informal economy means a number of things, people selling combs, cheap padlocks, Chinese radios, carrying everything on their backs… or the women in the market, all selling the vegetables they bought at the auction that morning.

Amena Hamani, 34, is one of these women: she works up to 60 hours a week selling second hand clothes. Like the ‘mamatilies’ (women who prepare and cook food by the side of the road and sell it for a tiny profit)- it is the only work that fits in round the demands of childcare and motherhood. She earns up to $80 (£55) a month, on a good month and arts are the last thing on her mind. Of her budget, 15,000 TZ shillings (about six pounds) a week is is spent on basics- maize, spinach and beans . Tea, sugar, rice and meat are luxuries that she buys once a week. And take the budget soaring up another 12,000 TZ shillings. (four pounds fifty). At eighty pence a kilo, sugar is now beyond her means. As is milk, at fifty pence a litre. She supports five people- three of her own kids, two of her brothers. Her rent is 20,000TZ a month (eight pounds) for two basic mud rooms (about 3 metres by 1.5metres each) and no electricity or running water. She has to buy water at fifty pence for ten litres, and the prices rise when there’s no electricity for the water pumps to fill the wells.

“Life is very very hard, it’s impossible if we need to buy medicine, clothes, shoes or pay school fees. Most of us in our neighbourhood run up bills and debts at the local shop; if we earn it goes to pay this off, and there’s nothing left. We live in debt.”

Arthur Ashton is philosophical: “ The problem is greed: this new middle class are greedy, and all this consumption puts a massive strain on resources, all of them- environments, land, electricity- we haven’t got a reliable electricity supply , yet our presidents- in Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania, own Lear jets that cost 50 million dollars apiece- if the leaders are corrupt and greedy, what kind of examples are they setting?”

Okoth is equally sanguine: “if a country is in crisis the government silences the artists, or disrespects them. They judge them for not having a big car, or much money, and then call them idiots, but actually they’re scared of them, artists are the soul of a country, the ones who make change.”

Publicly the president and his rival have rejected what President Atta Mills called the politics of insult. Mud-slinging has been a feature of Ghanaian politics and often seems to overshadow real debate about issues. One aspect of this style of politics is the very prominent antagonism between the two ex-presidents still influential nationally and in their own parties – Jerry Rawlings in the NDC and John Kufuor in the NPP. They have been fiercely critical of one another and Rawlings has been outspoken in his attacks on the NPP; though at times the former military ruler seems equally critical of Atta Mills and the NDC leadership – not least in the wake of the overwhelming defeat suffered by Rawlings’s wife, Nana Konadu Ageyman, in the party vote for the presidential candidacy. Atta Mills was the overwhelming victor with Nana Konadu getting barely three per cent of the votes. There were rumours he might even leave the NDC and join the NPP, of which he has been so critical. These rumours have so far come to nought. But is the NDC united as it heads towards the polls?

His criticisms and his political style earned him the nickname King Cobra – his verbal strikes are hard and fast. But he will need very different skills as he sets about forming his government and putting policies into place. Zambia is experiencing an economic boom as a result of soaring copper prices. On paper, the economy is growing and income from mining is leading the way. But, as Sata pointed out during his hard-hitting campaign, little of that is reaching ordinary Zambians, most of whom live on less than $2 a day.

One reason Sata identified during his campaign for continuing poverty was the massive problem of corruption, which he described as the ‘scourge’ of the nation. One of his first acts was to sack Rupiah Banda’s head of the Anti-Corruption Commission, Godfrey Kayukwa, and replace him with Mrs Rosewin Wandi.

Now the World Bank predicts this will continue to rise to 43 million by 2030, growth which seems attainable for Nigeria at least; a survey released  by Renaissance Capital reveals a nation that is optimistic about economic growth, values entrepreneurship and is primed to capitalise on a boom in consumption.

The survey questioned 1,004 middle-class Nigerians, living in the cities of Lagos, Abuja and Port Harcourt. The status of middle class was conferred to those living on $2-$20 a day.

The results reveal typically middle class traits; 92% of those surveyed obtained post-secondary education or studied at an institution of higher learning. Educating their children well proved a top priority as over half send their offspring abroad to complete their education. The average household size is 3.7 people, while the average number of cars is 0.8; around one third of middle-class Nigerians have a car that is less than five years old.

 ’The Nigerian middle class we surveyed has a monthly income of some $500-600 and nearly half will be buying fridges, freezers and other white goods, suggesting a consumer boom is under way,’ Renaissance said. ‘We cite the upside for consumer lending retail, white-goods retail, lifestyle and leisure, housing development and home improvement.’

The growth of Nigeria’s middle class follows a rise in the country’s Gross Domestic Product, which increased five fold from $46 billion in 2000, to $247 billion in 2011; during the same period the population increased by just more than one-third, from 119mn to 160mn.

The report also notes that Nigerians have a culture of saving; most of those surveyed did not have mortgages (which represent approximately 1% of GDP) or credit cards, although many expect to apply for the latter. This suggests there is ample opportunity for expansion in the consumer lending sector.

Growth in online commerce and more formal retail outlets can be expected too. With 73% still shopping at open air markets it could be an opportune time for franchises to break into a relatively untapped market; the success of Palms Mall which opened in Lagos in 2006 indicates consumer interest, and brought foreign companies such as electronics giant Samsung of South Korea and Spanish retail chain Mango to the country. Despite 48% percent having internet access, only 2% confess to shopping online at least once a month, statistics which suggest huge scope for online retail expansion in the country too.

However, despite these welcome statistics it is not all good news. Most of Africa’s middle class – 21% of the whole population – spend just over the $2per day poverty line threshold, earning between that and $4 which puts them at risk of sliding into a less comfortable economic category.

Professor Patrick Utomi, a political change activist has decried the near dearth of the middle class in Nigeria for several years now. In an interview in late 2007, Utomi had warned that ‘no nation will make meaningful progress unless it adequately caters for the emerging middle class who are expected to help drive the local economy’.

This is reflected in Renaissance’s findings, as the key areas of concern for Nigerians over the next 12 months are the supply of electricity and unemployment, with between 19-23% citing these as concerns; crime (5%) and corruption (3.5%) are seen as far less concerning.

Economists have estimated that Nigeria’s informal economy is at least as big as the country’s roughly $200 billion formal one. But the issues of poor roads, chronic power outages and dirty drinking water are still holding back progress; improvements to substandard infrastructure, the poorly functioning electricity grid and advances in the country’s education system are all factors that need to be addressed in order to propel the growth of the middle classes.

 Kenyan economist James Shikwati has suggested that middle-income consumers are also a driving force for political change:

‘It’s empowering,’ he said. ‘If you give people a sense of freedom in the economic sector, then you deny it in the political sector, you have a problem.’

It is certainly a positive result that despite poor public services and high levels of corruption, three-quarters of those surveyed are optimistic about the future of Nigeria.