After a stop-start journey in the last five years, the big players have arrived: BG group, KPMG, Royal Dutch Shell, Anadarko, Tullow, Petrobras, Ophir, Origin Oil, Total, BP and Aminex. Even the ‘security firms’ such as Cenkos, which previously regarded East Africa (and the Congo) as too swamped in piracy, conflict and uncertainty, said in November last year “East Africa is high risk and hugely expensive. It is also exceptionally rewarding if exploration is successful.” With only 500 oil wells drilled so far (compared to West and North Africa’s 35,000), the estimated value of the gas reserves alone are 100 trillion cubic feet. Petroleum reserves are estimated at 600,000 barrels a day. The factors that have tipped East Africa into the big game, are these.

Ease of Business and smoother democracies

First of all the creation of the East African Community has theoretically opened up trade borders and lessened tariffs. Secondly there have been technological advances both in mapping seismic faults and geographical areas that were previously unreachable, the economic risks of drilling have reduced. Thirdly, there is a concerted and obvious effort by East and Central African governments to sort out internal conflicts and engage more rigorously with the West, whose escalating oil prices have forced them to be more compliant. For the Mozamibiquan, Kenyan, Tanzanian, Sudanese, Somali, Puntland and Ugandan governments, the potential gains from oil, gas and mineral exploration are huge incentives to come to the table.

Wads of Cash

But most importantly, there is cash. US$ 2.1 trillion is needed for investment in African oil and gas supply infrastructure (refineries, roads, whole towns, ports,) between 2010-2035. This is where Africa’s burgeoning love affair with China becomes important. Previously smaller ‘wildcat’ oil explorers had the skills, but not the funds to take it to the next stage. Since the Africa Oil Week in South Africa in November last year, there have been a succession of buyouts of these smaller firms. China has proved its technical expertise in major projects all over Africa, from airports to the recent The Lamu Port and Lamu Southern Sudan-Ethiopia Transport Corridor (LAPSSET) developments, and has proved itself cheap, fast, reliable. China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC)has pledged to invest, although exact figures are impossible to locate. As establishment and US darling Oxford economist Professor Paul Collier remarks: “Future discoveries and resulting exports of resources including oil and gas will be around five times their current levels, based on what remains unexplored in Africa versus currently known sub-soil assets.” His sentiments are echoed by Adrian Heavey, CEO of Tullow, a prominent name in West and East African exploration: “This is a vital step towards the development of the Lake Albert Rift Basin and the oil and gas industry in Uganda and East Africa. I look forward to working in partnership with the Government of Uganda and CNOOC and Total as we progress this world-class asset.”

MYOPIA: People, Resources and Marine Ecosystems

Yet there is a staggering amount of myopia and short-sightedness. Have we learnt nothing from Ghana, Angola and Nigeria, where bitter battles, inconsistent petroleum regulation, weak civil society, existing conflicts exacerbated by oil, and deaths (and losses to shareholders) have shown it’s impossible to invest in oil/gas/mineral exploitation without ‘exploring local capacity’ as the jargon goes? In other words making sure the people that already live in the area are consulted, and have a share in decision making and profits. And being mindful of existing conservation stresses, and potential ecological problems.

It’s hard to know where to start. Most of East Africa has no regulatory frameworks in place for oil and mineral resources exploitation. Or if they have, there is an abject lack of willpower to implement them. Selous in Tanzania, the Albertine Rift and Murchison Falls National Park in Uganda, and Virunga National Park in Rwanda have all had Environmental Assessments or management plans which have not been adhered to or implemented. This is something which international marine organizations Ocean Conservation Group ( OCEANA) and the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) would like to rectify. So at the moment, unlike USA, Europe and some of the Pacific countries, there is no obligation to implement detailed environmental impact surveys.

The coastal regions (from Somaliland in the North to Mozambique) are acknowledged to be some of the most vulnerable sea areas in the world. WWF and the United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP) are already concerned about myriad of issues: from coastal mangroves, to turtles, whale sharks, torpoises, dolphins, rays, over 400 types of corals, seagrass, to overfishing. Says Dr Amani Ngusaru of the WWF “The resources of coastal East Africa are coming more and more under threat from rapid population growth, increased resource exploitation, unplanned development and climate change, burgeoning cities such as Mombasa, Dar es Salaam are threatening the very resource base that sustains them.”

The perils of oil spills are visible and high profile, in fact it is the planned building around the ports, which will cause the most damage. Oil spills upon marine environments are dwarfed by those of pollutants introduced from other sources (including domestic sewage, industrial discharges, leakages from waste tips, urban and industrial run-off, accidents, spillage, explosions, sea dumping operations, oil production, mining, agriculture nutrients and pesticides, waste heat sources, and radioactive discharges). Land based sources are estimated to account for around 44 percent of the pollutants entering the sea and atmospheric inputs account for an estimated 33 percent. By contrast, maritime transport accounts only for around 12 percent .

Accidents will Happen

In Jan 2012 Exxon Mobile – announced its staggering annual profits of $41.1 billion, yet no plans are in place to either enforce action plans or responses for oil spills, in any of the areas allocated for deep or shallow water drilling. Yet just recently, the oil giant BP agreed to pay $7.8bn to settle claims from an estimated 110,000 victims of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. In the last six years there have been four major oil spills, resulting in an estimated 100 billion gallons of oil into the sea.

Oceana, the largest international global ocean advocacy group says that currently, as well as relying on financial insurances, companies can pass along much of their cleanup costs to the domestic taxpayer when faced with disaster. Talking about the recent BP spill, Jacqueline Savitz, senior campaign director at Oceana says: “Taking the lives of 11 people, injuring many more, destroying tourism and fisheries industries, spilling 200 million gallons of oil and killing hundreds of turtles, dolphins and other ocean life is not, and should never be, considered a normal cost of doing business. It is bad business, and not what was intended when the tax write-off was established.” Given the poor record of citizen engagement in African countries, and the dubious taxing situation (allegedly 85% of Africa’s taxes remain unpaid) and the sometimes weak and collaborative media, it is highly unlikely the mechanisms will be in place to protect the populations of the coastal regions, who are already politically, economically and socially marginalised.

Even when data is forthcoming, it is so daunting, it is a huge task to tackle it. According to the Western Indian Ocean Marine Science Association (WIOMSA)/UNEP ‘Science 2008 Marine Survey.’ 40% is the amount of the ocean heavily affected by environmental mismanagement, 50% Amount of coral reefs heavily damaged, and 0.5% (850,000 square miles) of the ocean floor are very heavily affected. Only 4% of the entire ocean shows no traces of human impact.”

On Shakey Ground

On terra firma there are also problems. In Uganda three British firms, Tullow, Tower and Dominion are all exploring the Albertine Rift, a lake area.2- 2.5 billion barrels of oil have already been discovered. This is a vulnerable area of skirmishes with DRC rebels: over 100 people have been kidnapped in this area in attacks linked to fights over ransoms, minerals and oil. The most recent attack on the border town Mutungo on 2 August 2011 by the Mai-Mai militia displaced 70,000 residents. At a local level, villagers are concerned. Florence Landsberg of the World Resources Institute explains: “The fish stock is already at risk, because there is more catching of fish that are not mature. The upgrade of the roads has allowed for more fish to be exported. The restocking of the fish is not going to happen if there is no intervention”. Says Peter Viet, also of WRI “ Many scientists will tell you that the Albertine Rift is the most biologically diverse area in all of Africa. There are national parks, wildlife sanctuaries, forest reserves, and there already is some impact on these protected areas. For example, there is drilling in Murchison Falls National Park, even though many public interest environmental lawyers in Uganda will tell you that the law does not allow that. Kenneth Kakuru of Greenwatch filed a pleading in the High Court over extractive resource industries in national parks. (His case was rejected). There have been discussions on de-gazetting one of the parks to make way for an oil refinery. There is also talk of a pipeline that would take the oil to Mombassa that would have effects on biodiversity. And there is evidence oil workers are poaching inside protected areas. He adds that Achioli and Bunyoro people, local to the area, are selling up fast, at below market prices, scared that the government will not recompense them adequately.

There is further controversy in the area, according to a recent article on Pambazuka; “ A vicious land grab,’ Allimadi writes, ‘is being carried out in Uganda, pairing the country’s leader with an ‘investor,’ and the targets are the Acholi, genocide survivors who live in the northern part of the East African country, on abundant, fertile and mineral-rich land.’

Existing Lack of Resources for Citizens:

None of the existing plans to extract oil, gas and petroleum come with concrete systematic plans to provide for the communities in the area, beyond some references to providing local jobs in some cases. The threats to forests (due to charcoal and firewood exploitation) and erratic provision of electricity are well known in East Africa. Drilling down to basics, Erica Mackey, Co-Founder of Off-Grid Electric in Tanznia, says “Generally, people in Africa suffer from an expensive electrical grid, an unreliable grid, or have no electrical grid at all. Increasing the amount of raw materials extracted from the continent is not going to automatically increase infrastructure access, decrease transportation costs or ultimately extend the electrical grid to the 90% of East Africans who live without a connection.” She goes onto add: “If the goal of energy exploration is to actually increase energy access in Africa rather than the developed world, then the focus has to shift to include renewables. In addition to exploring the continent for oil, gas and coal, international investors should look at ways to finance business models that provide clean power as a key component to the future of Africa’s power provision”.

(Mostly) Angry locals- lack of consultation

Despite high tech imaging of geological deposits, pictures of the sea from space, the reality is we don’t have an accurate record of the approximately 50 million pastoralists and 200 million who depend on the sea and land for their livelihoods in Africa. There is no documented record of contacting these communities in the regions mentioned for their views on oil and gas exploration.

Thousands of miles away, on the Kenya coast of Mombassa, tucked between the new port of Lamu and Tanga, there is considerable trouble brewing: The Mombassa Republican Council, a secessionist movement, wants autonomy from Kenya. They are popular in the area, where there is high illiteracy rates, the presence of Al Shabaab, low rates of enrolment in schools and universities, and a sense they have been abandoned by Nairobi. Land tenure is ambiguous or is not officially recognised. More than 60 per cent of indigenous coastal people do not possess title deeds to their land. Others have entered into a kind of quasi squatter-tenant agreement with land owners. The problems of local fishermen and farmers have been well documented by local NGO’s, as they compete with trawler fishing, and larger super-boats that can pinpoint shoals, leaving fishermen with paddles in dugout canoes, floundering.

Their situation, despite riots and four deaths in December 2011, goes unreported in national media. Ditto the situation in North Kenya: hours away from the capital Nairobi, where news editors and reporters, constrained by tiny budgets and tight deadlines, are unable to go and see for themselves. There are rumours presently circulating that valuable archaeological deposits in Turkana, North Kenya, have been already destroyed through oil exploration. However no organisations want to be identified with ‘squealing’ so the situation remains unreported in local press: a local journalist was murdered in Loliondo, reporting on land grabs two years ago.

A glimmer of hope

Many of the issues these people in the East African Coastal regions face are similar to those in Puntland, Somalia, where resources are seized upon, in a dearth of opportunities.

In Puntland, local leaders under the Transitional Government are bucking the trend. Aware that no mechanisms exist to make sure money flows into the region, they are however, in an optimistic mood. Farah Hassan Atosh, a traditional elder and resident of Armo town, 28km northwest of an oil field, said: “We are expecting great things. It will change our lives for the better. Insh’Allah [God willing] we will never depend on others to give us food again.” He said that change was already happening in Armo town (population 25,000). “You can see many more people arriving every day and it can only add to the development of the town.” Drilling for oil began in January 2012. Said Atosh,”We not only support it, we will defend it from anyone who wants to stop it.” He said the project was also contributing to peace-building in the area. “They are employing many young men who would have been idle and easy prey for recruitment into militias.”

Lack of Financial accountability: have we learned nothing?

In Tanzania, there are mechanisms in place to regulate, but according to regional environmental consultants, (who prefer to remain unnamed) there is little will power to implement them and ministers rapidly forget about their commitments. Track records of environmental investigations in Selous, Stiegler’s Gorge dam, Kidunda dam and Mkuju River uranium mine and oil exploration do not bode well: they are dusty reports on shelves somewhere. Pweza, Chewa and Chaza wells have been drilled in deepwater in the northern part of the Ruvuma Basin and the Mafia Deep Offshore Basin held by BG and Ophir Energy. The Chinese government is providing Tanzania with a $1.06-billion loan to construct new infrastructure, which includes a new gas pipeline, feeder roads and telecoms. All these areas are deemed ecologically vulnerable, and there is no public record of community consultation or mechanisms to ensure profits flow back into community development.

One of the main problems is tracking the money: the investments, and ways to prevent a small elite benefiting. Again, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda have poor records. In East Africa, only companies registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission (in the USA) are required to submit financial reports. Even then as in Uganda, local ministers and judges ensure disclosure of documents relating to oil is kept out of the public sphere.

Meanwhile, the Mara River is an international river, shared between Kenya and Tanzania. The mining areas will impinge upon the dwindling Mara River Basin and draw valuable and scarce water. The basin is about 13,750 km2, of which about 65% is located in Kenya and 35% in Tanzania. The Mara River runs through the Masai Mara Game Reserve on the Kenyan side and the Serengeti National Park on the Tanzanian side, both of global conservation significance and of great economic importance for tourism. “Over 80% of Africa’s lions have been displaced due to environmental changes” says Richard Anderson in an article on the BBC in November 2010.

A recent, (Oct 2010) UNEP report, The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity (Teeb), put the damage done to the natural world by human activity in 2008 at between $2tn (£1.3tn) and $4.5tn. A second study, for the UN-backed Principles for Responsible Investment (PRI), puts the costs at $6.6tn, or 11% of global economic output.

It looks like we are no way reversing the trend.

Thembi Mutch

The countries include South Africa, Mozambique, Lesotho, DRC Congo, Ghana (all Vodafone), Kenya (Safaricom), Rwanda, Uganda (MTN), Uganda (UTL) and Burundi (UCOM).

The company annunced today that customers travelling to these countries can now receive free incoming calls and SMS, lower calls and data rates while roaming on the Vodacom Lesotho, Vodacom Mozambique, Vodacom South Africa, Vodacom DRC, Vodafone Ghana and Safaricom Kenya, MTN Rwanda, MTN Uganda, UTL Uganda, and UCOM Burundi networks.

Commenting on the new Africa roaming service, Rene Meza, Managing Director at Vodacom Tanzania says, ‘We know that people want to remain connected at an affordable rate whether they are at home or on holiday in South Africa or travelling for work in Ghana and that nobody likes the headache of worrying about roaming bills.

‘What we’re launching today is a solution to give our customers peace of mind when travelling’. Data roaming has been and still is an expensive affair for most operators and today we are so proud to reduce substantially together with voice and SMS our data roaming charges for our customers travelling in any of our African family added Meza.

This and the many products and services we have launched lately at Vodacom Tanzania are in keeping with our promise to stay the best, with the most value network in Tanzania. More should be expected from us in the coming weeks and months concluded Rene Meza, the managing Director of Vodacom in Tanzania.

Vodacom Tanzania Limited is the country’s leading cellular network offering state-of-the-art GSM communication services to more than 9 million customers across the nation. Vodacom Tanzania is a subsidiary company of Vodacom Group (Pty) Limited, South Africa.

Speaking to journalists Friday February 10th, Chambas declared 2012 to be a ‘year of restoration’, underlining plans to enhance the ACP as a ‘forward-looking international organisation.’

In 2012, the Group will focus on strengthening South-South solidarity and collaboration, intensifying attention on the Millennium Development Goals, advancing sustainable development programmes in ACP communities, and boosting the collective voice of ACP countries and their role as a group in the global arena.

‘The ACP Council of Ministers took the decision late last year to hold the 7th ACP Heads of State Summit in 2012. A theme has yet to be set, although a task force has been appointed to mobilise preparations for this meeting. As the ACP has not had a Heads of State Summit since 2008, we will certainly have a lot to talk about,’ remarked the Secretary General.

Key achievements for the Group in 2011 include the first ever symposium on South-South relations between the ACP and IBSA states – India, Brazil and South Africa.

The organisation, Made In Africa Foundation, is dedicated to bringing innovative ideas and capital to Africa, whilst also focusing on the first stage of funding for infrastructure.

With little capital available in the past, the International Finance Corporation estimates that Africa’s infrastructural deficit amounts to US$93 billion annually right through 2020. The fact that a large amount of this money was available was irrelevant, as it could not be applied until business plans and feasibility studies were sufficiently developed; a void the Made In Africa Foundation will try to fill.

Atlantic Energy has committed to underwrite US$7 million for an independent power project feasibility studies across Africa, as well as the Ugandan urban renewal master plan for Kampala’s Naguru Nakawa redevelopment, and the Foundation’s running costs for the first three years.

Founder, Ozwald Boateng said, ‘It is a well known statistic that US$400 million of funding for feasibility studies and master plans across Sub-Saharan Africa would develop over US$100 billion of infrastructure projects, which in turn would create a value of a trillion dollars across Africa.’

With this in mind, the organisation believe infrastructure is the key to transforming the economy from a developing to emerging market status and propose to provide ‘first mile’ finance to people and businesses that are involved in contributing to the development of major infrastructural projects in the region.

Dayo Okusami, General Counsel and Executive Director of Atlantic Energy, a private upstream oil and gas group that operates in Nigeria, said, ‘Atlantic Energy is pleased to be a founding donor and supporter of this exceptional charity and we look forward to fostering a continent wide push for sustainable infrastructure development.’

With the first step of infrastructural projects often being the hardest, the foundation hopes that its work will now make that step easier for Africans.

The Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (CEMAC) is comprised of six countries located in Central Africa; Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon and Congo. These countries offer investment opportunities in strategic sectors of their economies, ranging from telecommunications to urban planning and construction.

The conference focused on presenting the positive potentials these countries offer, whilst also discussing the progress and advancements individuals governments have been able to achieve. These include promoting both economic and political development in line with the specific needs of their communities, as well as looking to bridge the current gap that exists with countries in the northern hemisphere.

Many European investors have recently turned to Africa, mainly Central Africa, to explore the possibility of investment. They have looked to support local economies whilst also benefiting from various petroleum operations. At present, Cameroon offers significant agricultural potential whilst countries such as Gabon, Equatorial Guinea and Congo offer the possibility of natural gas explorations.

With the CEMAC region currently in the process of a political and economic renewal, better governance is being implemented, and the introduction of social developments are being explored, enabling continual progress and moving away from political instability and corruption.

With more countries across the African region becoming open to the prospect of tourism (CAN 2012), guest speaker Robert Tashima of the Oxford Business Group said, ‘the potential to stimulate revenue growth is enormous, particularly in light of the rich biodiversity of the region.’

However, the conference highlighted CMO London’s belief that the most important change is the need to listen to Africa’s diverse population and for Africans themselves to be proud of their ethnic background to enable continual growth within the region.

The strides currently undertaken by governments in the region, supported and publicised by CMO London, are bound to make business opportunities a reality and enable the CEMAC area to break free and become a destination for serious investors around the globe.

CMO London annual conference 2011 has been a success for the organisers and the special guests and in particular to the CEMAC region.

According to a widely reported idea, Jacob Zuma may have acted just in time to save himself from being challenged by Malema at the ANC’s upcoming meeting and hundredth birthday at Mangaung, due to take place in January. While this is a matter of debate, as in the ANC’s hierarchical arrangement Malema would not technically have had the authority to do so, given Malema’s outspoken reputation such a performance would not have come as a surprise. As things stand, the ANC, and Zuma by his actions, have been praised for removing a bugbear to many, including the party itself. Whites were put off by Malema’s purported exploitation of racial tensions, business and markets by his calls for nationalisation, and the international community and South Africa’s allies for his lambasting of their journalists (the BBC’s Jonah Fisher) and denigrating of their allies (Botswana). With political anger rising, and tangible economic problems such as a downgrading of the country’s credit rating over fears of instability in its key industries, the presidency has acted prudently if a little late in dealing categorically with Malema’s ill-discipline.

However, Zuma may still find himself chewing bitterly on his own earlier words. In 2009, the South African president praised Malema as a potential ‘future leader’ of the ANC and the country. While it remains to be seen whether Malema can stage a comeback, there is a lot of foresight in media reports that the rise of Malema is a symptom reflecting deeper realities in South African politics. South Africa is one of the most unequal societies in the world, a statement for which countless statistics can be found on the internet and elsewhere – to cite one example, its Gini coefficient of around 65 places the country is in the top five most unequal societies in the world – sadly, along with its close neighbours Botswana (63) and Namibia (70). For all its historically real and currently apparent sympathy with the poor, the ANC has not been able to narrow this gap since coming to power. Simply put, Malema managed to tap into the frustrations of the poor and give them something to believe in. That he was undone by his own confused mix of personal wealth, corruption, and miscalculated offence does not make the problem go away.

South Africa’s current leading politicians have a history of struggle behind them, and see themselves as the guardians of the liberation struggle in the country’s young democracy. Yet, these selfsame politicians have been decried for creating a corrupt system criticised for its cronyism, in a political alliance which, combining communists, black nationalists and free market thinkers, amongst others, has tried to be all things to all people – as long as they pledged their support to the ANC – and yet has not managed to liberate the approximately 50% of the population living in poverty. That this poverty affects black South Africans to a disproportional extent, and is to a large extent still affected by the system of Apartheid, is certainly true – but as a repeated statement of fact this holds little comfort for the starving.

What is striking about this system is that it seems to have become all-consuming – the same old politicians struggle for power at the top, with alliances shifting and backs scratched one day only to be stabbed the next. Young leaders such as Malema find themselves part of this monolithic ANC system, and all too often become tainted by the kind of corruption facilitated by power. Given the on-going power and leadership struggles, distorting the channels of communication for those citizens looking to the party for leadership, those who have a message for the disaffected which strikes a chord will find themselves listened to. In the most recent incarnation, this has meant embracing a populism which is dangerous not only for its content, but for its hollowness.

For Malema is not the first to reach out to the poor of the country by preaching populism. His own mentor President Zuma, now trying to clean his hands of the whole affair, came to power in 2009 to a large extent by reaching out to the poor, and claiming that he would fight poverty and inequality. Malema took up the poisoned chalice, and took the populism to the next step by calling for nationalisation and decrying imperialism. Zuma was either subsumed into the economic realities of the country and the markets, or cynically and not without guile accepted the fruits of the votes of the poor, but left behind the populism for pragmatism. Malema ostensibly stayed on message, at the same time exposing the dualities in the ANC not only to many South Africans to whom it was obvious that the country’s leadership was made up of strange bedfellows, but arguably even to many across the world who now see that the long-ruling party and indeed the country itself is riven by disagreement.

It has been said that one of the goals of politics is to ‘give voice to the voiceless’. Leaders and ex-leaders in the country’s leadership structure have capitalised on this fact, but the voiceless are still there, passed over in silence for now while ‘business as usual’ continues. Malema’s voice may have lacked the critical wisdom needed to guide the country, but until all South Africans are able to lift themselves up and experience equality, they will be listening for signs of hope. At a time when the country feels let down by its leaders, people may just feel that they need another hero.

Now, nearly three years later, the media has focussed largely on the activities of the International Criminal Court, on the machinations the men on trial at the Hague for Murder, incitement to murder and hate broadcasting. Last month Pre-Trial Chamber II found reasonable grounds to believe that William Ruto, together with Kiprono Kosgey, are criminally responsible indirect co-perpetrators for the crimes against humanity of murder, forcible transfer of population and persecution. The prosecution has argued that Uhuru Kenyatta, son of Jomo, and once darling of the West, met with leaders of the outlawed Kikuyu-based Mungiki sect in order to organise retaliatory attacks in the Rift Valley towns of Nakuru and Naivasha, in response to the initial attacks on the Kikuyu community in the region.

In Kenya, a few academic articles look at the role of hate crimes and hate broadcasting, drawing parallels with Rwanda. The media here asks whether or not the violence was orchestrated, masterminded and funded, and by whom, and for how long. Much of this coverage misses the central point that Kenyans are concerned with. How will Kenyans process this information? Where does the responsibility lie to make sure it never happens again? Can civil society groups, elders, the media, commentators and educators supply the necessary emotional and intellectual parameters and wisdom to guide this discussion to a positive outcome?

The despot’s defeat came swiftly, following his discovery in a sewage line in his home town of Sirte, one of the last strongholds of loyalist troops in the country. There he was captured and reported to have been fatally wounded in crossfire between his supporters and  interim government National Transition Council (NTC) fighters. His body was quickly revealed by the NTC to the world’s media, lest there be any doubt that the erstwhile dictator was dead- a measure necessary given false confirmation earlier in the year of the capture of his son Saif. For the Libyan people, Gaddafi’s body was put on public display in a supermarket refrigerator in the port city of Misrata, where scores lined up to view and photograph it.

Although celebrations across the country do not show any sign of waning just yet, Gaddafi’s end is not as neat a culmination as many would like. Libya’s chief pathologist, Dr Othman al-Zintani, reported that Gaddafi died from a gunshot wound to the head; however the turn of events marking his last moments is mired in confusion; he was reportedly captured alive, but injured in both legs. Transported to hospital he dies in crossfire; but camera phone footage reveals him covered in blood and jostled by handlers, dragged to the ground by his hair.

The uncertainty of how he met his end has lead to questions of culpability and whether Gaddafi in fact died at the hands of the mob. Following calls by US Secretary of State Hilary Clinton and the UK Defence Secretary Philip Hammond, the United Nations has already said it would conduct an investigation into his killing. New York-based organisation Human Rights Watch, viewed the body, and confirmed video footage, photos and other information ‘indicate that [he] might have been executed after being detained’.

By and large, these concerns are not shared by the Libyan people.

Khalid al-Jibouni of the Tripoli Youth Union – a volunteer organisation promoting civil society – told the Guardian: ‘Now Gaddafi is dead, the pillars of the regime have all fallen. Until now, some people still thought that Gaddafi could somehow come back. Now we can really breathe freely.’

But Gaddafi’s removal is also of great significance to the international community. The leader’s ‘Islamic Legion’ committed heinous crimes in West Africa, including supporting and backing rebel leaders Foday Sankoh and Charles Taylor in Sierra Leone and Liberia respectively.  Agents murdered political opponents abroad, and he was the proponent of terrorist activities including IRA violence and the Lockerbie bombing which killed over 250 people in 1988.

The involvement and backing of NATO forces certainly abetted the revolution- and will no doubt play an invaluable role in rebuilding the country- but it did lead to inevitable questions as to their future role in the country. As we foresaw back in August,  it will be a daunting task; but should the West decide to replicate a democratic etic in Libya it could give rise to further problems. Given all political opposition was outlawed under Gaddafi’s leadership, parties have a long road ahead of them before they come to plan for a new government and constitutional assembly; but they must be allowed to take these steps themselves.

The democratic tenet on which the revolution was based and Gaddafi ousted must not be forgotten and it is important that the country feels it can now act in an autonomous manner, without interference.

Prior to Gaddafi’s capture, former UK foreign secretary Sir Malcolm Rifkind told BBC Radio 4 Today programme;

‘This isn’t about the British position or the NATO position – it’s about what the Libyans themselves want and can live with.

‘It is their country and it is their future’: a precept which rings as true following Gaddafi’s removal – however it happened.

As much as the international community – and, it must be said, many Libyans too- had held out hope that Gaddafi would finally be made to answer for his atrocious crimes by the International Criminal Court (ICC), pursuing the manner of his death is not what should take precedence in Libya now. Investigations into his killing will no doubt distract from the task of implementing change in a country decidedly on the cusp of securing democratic, people-led governance.

It is a particularly key moment for the NTC to look to the future. Just two days after Gaddafi’s death interim Prime Minister Mahmoud Jibril confirmed that Libya’s new leaders have a ‘very limited opportunity’ to put their differences to one side, as he announced he was stepping down. Pro-Gaddafi fighters are still heavily armed and have yet to yield to the interim powers, so a resurgence of conflict is not yet out of the question.

The legality of the NTC has also been weakened by alternative explanations of Gaddafi’s killing, which differ from their official account. This undermines somewhat their democratic imperative, and combined with a protracted delay in disposing of his body has led some analysts to suggest political disorder is imminent.

Ed Husain, Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations believes that ‘the chaotic manner in which Muammar al-Qaddafi was allegedly captured, injured, and then killed is emblematic of the mismanagement and blunders of the Libyan National Transition Council. Worse, the barbaric manner in which–at least according to several photographs–the killers surrounded his blood-soaked corpse does not bode well for the emergence of a democratic culture inside Libya soon.’

The danger is, if we dwell too much on Gaddafi’s death, we malign the thousands of Libyans’ who died or are missing in pursuit of democratic freedoms.

George Grant of the British-based think-tank The Henry Jackson Society believes that reconciliation with former Gaddafi security forces and civilian personnel who were not found guilty of serious crimes ‘must be an absolute priority’.

‘Their inclusion in any post-Gaddafi settlement will be vital not just because of their expertise, but also because of the importance of incorporating potentially antagonistic constituencies into the transitional framework, thus maximising its chances for success,’ he said.

Revolutions are not new to the Arab world – even Gaddafi styled himself as ‘Guide of the Revolution’ having led the coup d’état to overthrow King Idris I in 1969. But 2011’s Arab Spring has brought a new, stronger component; the voices of the people. Having shaken the shackles of an obdurate rule, Libyan’s are now in a position to decide for themselves what kind of political future they want and the country’s official liberation, announced on October 23, will no doubt draw a timeframe for elections to be held. Although it is not yet clear who or what will take the place of Gaddafi or the monarchy he overthrew, the forces of the revolution will surely propel Libya toward a healthier future. Rich oil reserves and the propensity for a lucrative tourist industry could provide a bounty of opportunity for a country of just 6 million people.

In the global rankings Morocco triumphed for most improved economy. According to Nadine Ghannam of the IFC, Morocco achieved top ranking by ‘simplifying the construction permitting process, easing the administrative burden of tax compliance, and providing greater protections to minority shareholders.’ She also confirmed that since 2005, Morocco had implemented 15 business regulatory reforms, suggesting that the policy changes and business regulation in the country are being well adhered to.

In Sub-Saharan Africa, a record 36 out of 46 economies improved business regulations this year. Despite not recording particularly high rankings, Sierra Leone and São Tomé and Príncipe emerged as much improved regions, an indication that many African regions are consolidating efforts towards improving their global business standing.

Mauritius is the top nation in Sub-Saharan Africa in terms of ‘ease of doing business’, scoring an overall worldwide ranking of 23. South Africa, given the global commodities boom, was an unsurprising second place. Rwanda scooped (perhaps unexpectedly) the third spot; it is a solid indication that the country’s domestic tourist industry is thriving, a particularly impressive feat when considered alongside a mediocre regional score of 31 for ‘trading across borders’. This is a particularly significant coup given the negative economic impact the 1994 genocide had on the country; and confirms that economic progress is not only a possibility in Africa, but is happening.

“As a poet, an artist, I share myself, I tell my truth, I reconcile my demons: as artists we are mirrors of society , we generate the questions that need to be asked, if I am ready to ask the question, society is asking it too.” Betty Muragori is a vibrant articulate performance poet, writer, consultant and coach, and part of the new middle classes, that contentious beast in Africa. She continues: “I think we have to acknowledge that here in Kenya the new leaders didn’t really overturn the colonial model. They stepped into the trappings of privilege, and carried on. We live in comfortable suburbs. Yet we have terrible slums on our doorstep. It’s about comfort and exclusion, did we really dismantle it? it’s like you’ve been smelling the cooking, you’ve been standing at the kitchen door, and now that door is open. You can come in, and you think, this is what I desire, so I straighten my hair, I change myself, I call myself ‘wrong’ so I can now step into this world I’ve spent my life looking at.”

Any discussion around class, aspirations, improvement and consumption here in East Africa generates a huge vibrant discussion. Disentangling whether or not increased incomes and appetites equals a treacherous slide towards adopting Western (or Colonial) attitudes is inevitable. As Dr Rosemary Okoth remarks “Defining the middle class is intensely problematic, arguably our upper class are our political leaders who have money, and power, to which the middle classes aspire. This is a fluid term, when they are out of power they’ll be back in the matatu (minibus, public transport) and borrowing money again. Is that who we aspire to be?” The lack of role models for the new middle class and the lack of parameters for the discussion is evident: is it about leadership, obligations, or tribe? Says Okoth “What is so interesting about Tanzania is that it is irrelevant where Nyerere came from. That is an amazing achievement, that the term ‘tribe’ is inconsequential in creating a true nation”.

Young Tanzanians however, are far removed from the socialism and ubuntu of ‘Baba Wa Taifa’ (Father of the Nation) President Julius Nyerere. They are immersed in Blackberry phones, Bling, Barbie Girl on the Radio, SMS connectivity. Twenty years ago, this sort of Tanzanian didn’t exist. Julius Nyerere actively discouraged middle class consumption, business or entrepreneurism: in the socialist model, we were all equal.

Is this rapid thrust towards acquisition healthy? What is being sidelined in the process? Certainly academics, teachers and artists, those who are responsible for creating the next generation of the middle class, do not have salaries commensurate with their achievements. In this new climate businessmen are rewarded, not poets. Geoffrey Macharia, a Kenyan IT specialist says “I grew up with Ngugi wa Thiong’o, with Chinua Achebe, this forms my identity, my roots. All this investment creates a class of people who have disposable income, but still, the arts must remain free, and not objective driven, or determined by the availability of resources. Cultural identity comes from the ‘software’ the arts of society.”

Out on the streets, surveying any major capital- Mombasa, Kampala, Arusha, Nairobi or Dar Es Salaam the profligacy of malls, luxury serviced apartments, office blocks and hotels springing up is striking and alarming- who is building this stuff? Who is it for? There appears to be a projected fantasy lifestyle that we will be living in an endless American-type consumption fetish loop. What lies beneath the exuberant boasts that “we’ve never had it so good here in East Africa” is a slow and stealthy obliteration of public space, of cultural and other discussion of what society is, and what we’re doing. In the furious rush to build and pillage, the importance, and funding of the arts seems to have got trampled.

Faisal Kiwewa, Director of the thriving Ugandan Arts organization Bayimba Cultural Foundation notes, “Whereas we receive considerable support from mainly foreign public sector funders, we are challenged in convincing the private sector to get on board. They perceive arts festivals do not directly serve rampant consumerism, nor do they offer direct private benefits. The private sector fails to see – or attach value to – the relevance and economic spin-off of investing in a large arts and /cultural festivals. Even though this very same private sector is to a large extend relying and /depending on goods produced by this very sector”. In effect African culture is largely validated – and funded- by non-Africans.

He goes on, “Our governments are pushed by the same consumerism and only seem to want to invest in the hardware, buildings, roads etc. and not in the software of society, in – arts / culture, in education. There is huge building activity on going in Kampala, often at the expense of the software, the non-commercial side of society, and with hardly any public space left”. Right now, there is a huge public debate in Uganda regarding the demolition of the only National Museum for a commercial 60, yes sixty, floor building called the East African Trade Centre.

There is certainly a huge need for more dialogue between those who work in the arts, and those who work in business. The sponsorship of the arts by large corporates that is so prevalent in South Africa is new here in East Africa. Kenya’s Safaricom (part of the global Vodacom group, which overall does have a progressive approach to the arts) does support regular excellent classical concerts and other cultural projects. But for larger arts events, like the Sauti Za Busara Festival in Zanzibar, funding questions are ongoing. The festival is a cultural counterpoint to the flashy hotels springing up. Director Yusuf Mahmoud says: “Sauti Za Busara festival brings a significant boost for the local economy. All the hotels around Stone Town are fully booked around festival time, it’s difficult to get local flights and ferry tickets; taxi drivers are busy, shops are full and local traders are all smiling. The number of visitors to Zanzibar in February has increased by more than 400% since the festival started. People of different races, religions, political parties and beliefs mingle with each other. Yet at the same time we really struggle to persuade corporate Tanzania their involvement in sponsoring is crucial to ensure the festival is even able to continue”.

Arthur Ashton, a Tanzanian who is in import and export (he brings in large volumes of white goods) says “We in East Africa are expanding at an incredible rate on all fronts. Land ownership, mining trading, transport with the pan-African highway, ships and containers coming into the large ports ( a new one is being built to service East Africa, in Tanga right now), mining, you name it, there isn’t a single sector that isn’t expanding, and with it the emerging middle class and their voracious appetite for consumer ‘stuff’ is growing, plasma TV screens, all this building.” Democracy appears to equal the ability to purchase, to own. Equality is now a new Mercedes Benz.

Koshi Sampi and his brother Ravi, from Nairobi and in their early thirties, still see great opportunities in Tanzania. “Arusha is only three hours away on the Pan East African Highway, but it’s behind Nairobi in some ways, in terms of manufacturing and investment, and the drop in commodities like tea, coffee and mineral resources on the world market has affected us. But all the same, compared to Kenya, there’s so much potential for developing manufacturing here. Textiles, tyres, pharmaceuticals. All the things we’ve got already in Nairobi”. They are sceptical about the new middle class: “They’re ostentatious, building big marble houses and showing off their wealth, the new middle class, but they’re hoarding, and they’re not generous; we need to get to a point where the wealth is spread out a bit- into restaurants, jazz clubs, theatre, culture, like London and Nairobi, we’re still a long way off that.”

For the larger businessmen, their concerns are economic, not artistic. Says Koshi, “Actually whilst the fact that international firms and banks are moving into East African like never before, we need to stem the flood of cheap imports, by imposing higher import duties, like India has, otherwise we’ll get swamped with cheap tat, and lose sight of quality.” But the cheap tat has a market: for the first time a whole range of ‘stuff’ (the market is brimming with cheap kitchen goods, radios, unbelievable numbers of hardware shops, and cheap imported clothes) is available to the poorer sections of the country.

Tanzania, like Uganda and Kenya supports over 70% of its working population in the informal sector. Unemployment figures are notoriously unreliable here, but it stands, conservatively at 50% in all these countries . The description informal economy means a number of things, people selling combs, cheap padlocks, Chinese radios, carrying everything on their backs… or the women in the market, all selling the vegetables they bought at the auction that morning.

Amena Hamani, 34, is one of these women: she works up to 60 hours a week selling second hand clothes. Like the ‘mamatilies’ (women who prepare and cook food by the side of the road and sell it for a tiny profit)- it is the only work that fits in round the demands of childcare and motherhood. She earns up to $80 (£55) a month, on a good month and arts are the last thing on her mind. Of her budget, 15,000 TZ shillings (about six pounds) a week is is spent on basics- maize, spinach and beans . Tea, sugar, rice and meat are luxuries that she buys once a week. And take the budget soaring up another 12,000 TZ shillings. (four pounds fifty). At eighty pence a kilo, sugar is now beyond her means. As is milk, at fifty pence a litre. She supports five people- three of her own kids, two of her brothers. Her rent is 20,000TZ a month (eight pounds) for two basic mud rooms (about 3 metres by 1.5metres each) and no electricity or running water. She has to buy water at fifty pence for ten litres, and the prices rise when there’s no electricity for the water pumps to fill the wells.

“Life is very very hard, it’s impossible if we need to buy medicine, clothes, shoes or pay school fees. Most of us in our neighbourhood run up bills and debts at the local shop; if we earn it goes to pay this off, and there’s nothing left. We live in debt.”

Arthur Ashton is philosophical: “ The problem is greed: this new middle class are greedy, and all this consumption puts a massive strain on resources, all of them- environments, land, electricity- we haven’t got a reliable electricity supply , yet our presidents- in Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania, own Lear jets that cost 50 million dollars apiece- if the leaders are corrupt and greedy, what kind of examples are they setting?”

Okoth is equally sanguine: “if a country is in crisis the government silences the artists, or disrespects them. They judge them for not having a big car, or much money, and then call them idiots, but actually they’re scared of them, artists are the soul of a country, the ones who make change.”